How does high interest rates affect the economy?
Because higher interest rates mean higher borrowing costs, people will eventually start spending less. The demand for goods and services will then drop, which will cause inflation to fall. Similarly, to combat the rising inflation in 2022, the Fed has been increasing rates throughout the year.
“As the Fed raises interest rates, we typically expect slower economic growth,” says Eric Freedman, chief investment officer, U.S. Bank Wealth Management. Surprisingly, however, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew more quickly in 2023 (2.5%) than it did in 2022 (1.9%).
The financial sector generally experiences increased profitability during periods of high-interest rates. This is primarily because banks and financial institutions earn more from the spread between the interest they pay on deposits and the interest they charge on loans.
Higher interest rates increase the return on savings. They also make the cost of borrowing more expensive. Higher interest rates help to slow down price rises (inflation).
Unintended Consequences: While higher interest rates can have positive effects, they can also have unintended consequences. Excessively high interest rates can stifle economic growth, discourage business investments, and lead to higher unemployment.
Inflation allows borrowers to pay lenders back with money worth less than when it was originally borrowed, which benefits borrowers. When inflation causes higher prices, the demand for credit increases, raising interest rates, which benefits lenders.
How does increasing interest rates reduce inflation? Increasing the bank rate is like a lever for slowing down inflation. By raising it, people should, in theory, start to save more and borrow less, which will push down demand for goods and services and lead to lower prices.
Higher interest rates typically slow down the economy since it costs more for consumers and businesses to borrow money. But while higher interest rates can make it more expensive to borrow and could hamper overall economic growth, there are also some benefits.
A rise in interest rates automatically boosts a bank's earnings. It increases the amount of money that the bank earns by lending out its cash on hand at short-term interest rates.
Do Interest Rates Rise or Fall in a Recession? Interest rates usually fall during a recession. Historically, the economy typically grows until interest rates are hiked to cool down price inflation and the soaring cost of living. Often, this results in a recession and a return to low interest rates to stimulate growth.
How do you profit from rising interest rates?
- Individual bonds versus bond funds.
- Treasury bonds or notes.
- Real estate investment trusts, or REITs, which tend to hold up well or even outperform during times of rising interest rates.
- Preferred stocks versus common stocks.
Rising rates are a risk for banks, even though many benefit by collecting higher interest rates from borrowers while keeping deposit rates low. Loan losses may also increase as both consumers and businesses now face higher borrowing costs—especially if they lose jobs or business revenues.
When the Federal Reserve increases the federal funds rate, it typically increases interest rates throughout the economy, which tends to make the dollar stronger. The higher yields attract investment capital from investors abroad seeking higher returns on bonds and interest-rate products.
When the central bank increases interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive. In this environment, both consumers and businesses might think twice about taking out loans for major purchases or investments. This slows down spending, typically lowering overall demand and hopefully reducing inflation.
As corporations and households get overextended and face difficulties in meeting their debt obligations, they reduce investment and consumption, which in turn leads to a decrease in economic activity. Not all such credit booms end up in recessions, but when they do, these recessions are often more costly than others.
Key Takeaways. Central banks set benchmark interest rates to guide borrowing costs and the pace of economic growth. Lower rates spur growth while higher ones restrain spending, investment, and stock market valuations. If rates rise too quickly, demand may decline, causing businesses to reduce output and cut jobs.
Low-income households most stressed by inflation
Prior research suggests that inflation hits low-income households hardest for several reasons. They spend more of their income on necessities such as food, gas and rent—categories with greater-than-average inflation rates—leaving few ways to reduce spending .
Some of the worst investments during high inflation are retail, technology, and durable goods because spending in these areas tends to drop.
Monetary policy primarily involves changing interest rates to control inflation. Governments through fiscal policy, however, can assist in fighting inflation. Governments can reduce spending and increase taxes as a way to help reduce inflation.
In fact, most of the rise in inflation in 2021 and 2022 was driven by developments that directly raised prices rather than wages, including sharp increases in global commodity prices and sectoral price spikes driven by a combination of pandemic-induced kinks in supply chains and a huge shift in demand during the ...
Why is inflation so high?
Inflation affects the prices of everything around us. Generally speaking, inflation can be caused by a number of factors. The recent surge in inflation has been driven, at least in part, by supply chain issues, pent-up consumer demand and economic stimulus from the pandemic. » Learn more: When will inflation go down?
The losers
Bond-fund investors, borrowers, and certain industries feel the pinch as soon as rates move upward: Bond funds, which regularly buy and sell their underlying holdings, can experience losses in the net asset value in the short term due to the inverse relationship between rates and bond prices.
When Fed rate hikes make borrowing money more expensive, the cost of doing business rises for public (and private) companies. Over time, higher costs and less business could mean lower revenues and earnings for public firms, potentially impacting their growth rate and their stock values.
Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing, reduce disposable income and therefore limit the growth in consumer spending. Higher interest rates tend to reduce inflationary pressures and cause an appreciation in the exchange rate.
- First Republic Bank (FRC) . Above average liquidity risk and high capital risk.
- Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) . Above average capital risk.
- KeyCorp (KEY) . Above average capital risk.
- Comerica (CMA) . ...
- Truist Financial (TFC) . ...
- Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) . ...
- Zions Bancorporation (ZION) .
