What will happen with interest rates?
Interest rates have held steady since July 2023.
Mortgage rate predictions 2024
While there's some dispute on exactly how much rates will decrease, the general consensus is that mortgage rates will go down in 2024, and they could even end up close to 6% by the end of the year.
When Will Mortgage Rates Go Down? Mortgage rates are expected to decline when Federal Reserve policymakers cut the benchmark interest rate, which is likely to happen in the second half of 2024. But as long as inflation runs hotter than the Fed would like, rates will remain elevated at their current levels.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
The median estimate for the fed-funds rate target range at the end of 2025 moved to 3.75% to 4%, from 3.5% to 3.75% in December.
In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.
Goldman said it expects 30-year mortgage rates will drop to 6.3% by the end of 2024, and fall slightly in 2025 to 6% as the Fed starts to cut interest rates. Previously, Goldman had expected the 30-year mortgage rate to be at 7.1% by the end of 2024 and at 6.6% by the end of 2025.
Even with interest rates as high as they are, it's still a great time to buy a house. The higher interest rates have priced some buyers out of the market, which means you could face less competition when you make offers.
The Federal Reserve has indicated that there's a good chance it would cut rates later in 2024.
“Mortgage rates will decline over the course of the next two to three years as the rate of inflation declines and hopefully gets to the Fed target of 2%,” Cohn says. “Mortgage rates will be at least a full 2% lower by 2025.”
Will interest rates go back to 5?
The good news is that inflation is cooling, and many experts expect interest rates to move in a downward direction in 2024. Then again, a two-point drop would be significant, and even if rates fall, they're not likely to get down to 5% within the next year.
In today's market, a good mortgage interest rate can fall in the high-6% range, depending on several factors, such as the type of mortgage, loan term, and individual financial circ*mstances. To understand what a favorable mortgage rate looks like for you, get quotes from a few different lenders and compare them.
Overall, forecasters expect mortgage rates to continue easing. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects rates to fall to 6.1 percent by year's end, while Fannie Mae forecasts they'll be at 5.8 percent. The National Association of Realtors estimates rates will average 5.9 percent for the full year.
"We would expect mortgage rates to be closer to 6.5% in 2025 than the current rate of 8%." Other projections align with that rate expectation.
For people looking to buy a home, a recession can bring some advantages. When the economy is not doing well, home prices often drop, which can be good news for those who want to find a good deal; plus, during recessions, mortgage rates usually stay low, meaning buyers can get a home with lower monthly payments.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
Legally speaking, there's no limit to how many times you can refinance your mortgage, so you can refinance as often as it makes financial sense for you. Depending on your lender and the type of loan, though, you might encounter a waiting period — also called a seasoning requirement.
When inflation is running high, the Fed raises those short-term rates to slow the economy and reduce pressure on prices. But higher interest rates make it more expensive for banks to borrow, so they raise their rates on consumer loans, including mortgages, to compensate.
The lowest interest rate for a mortgage in history came in 2020 and 2021. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, the 30-year fixed rate dropped under 3% for the first time since 1971, when Freddie Mac first began surveying mortgage lenders.
Driving the news: The median Fed official now expects interest rates to be somewhat higher in 2025 and 2026 than they did in December — anticipating fewer rate cuts will be justified in the coming two years. The median projection for the longer-run rate also ticked up, to 2.6% from 2.5%.
What will the 30-year mortgage rate be in 2025?
Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025. Freddie Mac's latest data shows the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently around 6.74%.
| Housing Authority | 30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast (Q2 2024) |
|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 6.30% |
| National Association of Home Builders | 6.39% |
| Mortgage Bankers Association | 6.60% |
| National Association of Realtors | 6.60% |
Is it ever smart to put down less than 20 percent? For most homebuyers, a down payment of less than 20 percent will generally cost more money in the long run. But if saving up that kind of money will keep you from ever owning a home, it's worth considering.
Ideally, you'll be able to buy when both interest rates and home prices are low. If that's not possible, calculate both the short- and long-term costs of a lower interest rate versus a lower purchase price.
| Product | Interest Rate | APR |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year fixed-rate | 5.832% | 6.083% |
| 7-year ARM | 6.733% | 7.553% |
| 5-year ARM | 6.796% | 7.736% |
| 30-year fixed-rate FHA | 5.957% | 6.734% |
