Why is China so much debt?
Most of this debt came from building infrastructure, much of which is unlikely to generate revenues sufficient to pay off the obligations. With China's trend growth rate notably lower now than it was, it leaves a burden over the long haul.
China's debt has risen dramatically in the past decade, largely the result of credit fed to state-owned enterprises in the wake of the global financial crisis.
[2] A report by the credit rating agency S&P Global in 2022 estimated that 79 per cent of corporate debt in China was owed by SOEs (the IMF does not break down the proportion of debt owed by SOEs).
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
The Chinese economy grew at a 5.2% annual pace in 2023, exceeding the government's target, and many indicators including factory output and retail sales show signs of improvement. But most economists are forecasting a slowdown this year and next that will drag on global growth.
In 2023, aggregate local government debt had risen to 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion) and the central government of People's Republic of China ordered its banks to roll over debts in a debt-restructuring. China's gross external debt in 2023 was $2.38 trillion.
If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.
Country | Economy |
---|---|
United States | $25.347 trillion |
China | $19.91 trillion |
Japan | $5.396 trillion |
Germany | $4.55 trillion |
What would happen if China stopped buying US debt? Very little. China holds only about five percent of the US public debt, and roughly the same amount that Japan holds. The largest creditor of the US government is actually the Social Security Administration—in effect, the government itself.
The United States supported China's entrance into the World Trade Organization at the turn of the millennium, which led to an export boom of Chinese goods into the U.S. China ended up parking much of its sales in U.S. Treasurys, CNN reported, because of their perceived safety as an investment.
What country is not in debt?
Singapore is one of Asia's major financial centers. It is also one of the most prosperous countries on the planet. And all this has been achieved without taking on any meaningful public debt. In fact, very much like Norway, Singapore has more assets than debt.
China owes the United States $1.3 trillion, which is the most debt out of all the countries that are its debtors. Japan was the primary debt holder until 2008, but now comes in second place, with $1.2 trillion. Other countries with outstanding U.S. debt include Russia, India and South Korea.
Tax cuts, stimulus programs, increased government spending, and decreased tax revenue caused by widespread unemployment generally account for sharp rises in the national debt.
China economy overtaking U.S. is increasingly unlikely: ex-IMF official.
China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt. 1 However, it does not own the most U.S. debt of any foreign country. Nations borrowing from each other may be as old as the concept of money.
Demographics: Fewer workers
People are having fewer babies and the overall population is shrinking and skewing older, meaning the pool of workers and consumers in China is set to get smaller. Those changes will make sustaining economic growth harder in future.
China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt. 1 However, it does not own the most U.S. debt of any foreign country.
- Japan. Japan has the highest percentage of national debt in the world at 259.43% of its annual GDP. ...
- United States. ...
- China. ...
- Russia.
1) Switzerland
Switzerland is a country that, in practically all economic and social metrics, is an example to follow. With a population of almost 9 million people, Switzerland has no natural resources of its own, no access to the sea, and virtually no public debt.
Country/territory | US foreign-owned debt (January 2023) |
---|---|
Japan | $1,104,400,000,000 |
China | $859,400,000,000 |
United Kingdom | $668,300,000,000 |
Belgium | $331,100,000,000 |
Will the US ever get out of debt?
Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation).
It began rising at a fast rate in the 1980's and was accelerated through events like the Iraq Wars and the 2008 Great Recession. Most recently, the debt made another big jump thanks to the pandemic with the federal government spending significantly more than it took in to keep the country running.
With $1.1 trillion in Treasury holdings, Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt.