Does China really have a debt problem?
Li Daokui has estimated that local Chinese authorities had by 2020 run up a much bigger tally of debt than previously realized, at some 90 trillion yuan ($12.6 trillion). Most of this debt came from building infrastructure, much of which is unlikely to generate revenues sufficient to pay off the obligations.
Even though a financial crisis is improbable, this doesn't mean that China will escape its current debt problems unscathed. Real losses have been incurred by lenders from the collapse of property activity, the shift of factories to other countries, and the toll of the country's prolonged zero-Covid policy.
The Chinese economy grew at a 5.2% annual pace in 2023, exceeding the government's target, and many indicators including factory output and retail sales show signs of improvement. But most economists are forecasting a slowdown this year and next that will drag on global growth.
Corporate debt adds another 123 per cent of GDP worth of liabilities, a large chunk of which is owed by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [2]. In addition, household debt - mostly mortgages - is 61 per cent of GDP. Altogether, China's gross national debt is over 300 percent of GDP.
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.
China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt. 1 However, it does not own the most U.S. debt of any foreign country. Nations borrowing from each other may be as old as the concept of money.
Measured at market exchange rates, China's GDP was $18.3 trillion in 2022, 73 percent of the GDP of the United States and 10 times more than the 7 percent of US GDP it registered in 1990.
Most of this debt came from building infrastructure, much of which is unlikely to generate revenues sufficient to pay off the obligations. With China's trend growth rate notably lower now than it was, it leaves a burden over the long haul.
China economy overtaking U.S. is increasingly unlikely: ex-IMF official.
Which country has no debt?
1) Switzerland
Switzerland is a country that, in practically all economic and social metrics, is an example to follow. With a population of almost 9 million people, Switzerland has no natural resources of its own, no access to the sea, and virtually no public debt.
- Japan. Japan has the highest percentage of national debt in the world at 259.43% of its annual GDP. ...
- United States. ...
- China. ...
- Russia.
Analysts estimate that two-thirds of corporate debt is in the hands of China's sprawling state-owned enterprises, many of which are unprofitable and inefficient.
In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion. In isolation, this $7.4 trillion amount is a lot, said Scott Morris, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.
China owes the United States $1.3 trillion, which is the most debt out of all the countries that are its debtors. Japan was the primary debt holder until 2008, but now comes in second place, with $1.2 trillion. Other countries with outstanding U.S. debt include Russia, India and South Korea.
The total debt is nearly $34 trillion, but changes somewhat depending on how you calculate it. And about a third, or 30%, of the publicly held national debt is owned by foreign countries and foreign investors. The biggest foreign holder of U.S. debt is Japan, followed by China.
If China “dumped” USA treasuries, they would take a serious monetary loss. The price of the treasuries would drop, effective raising the return for those who bought the bonds.
| Country/territory | US foreign-owned debt (January 2023) |
|---|---|
| Japan | $1,104,400,000,000 |
| China | $859,400,000,000 |
| United Kingdom | $668,300,000,000 |
| Belgium | $331,100,000,000 |
The public owes 74 percent of the current federal debt. Intragovernmental debt accounts for 26 percent or $5.9 trillion. The public includes foreign investors and foreign governments. These two groups account for 30 percent of the debt.
In the latest reports, Russia National Government Debt reached 285.4 USD bn in Dec 2023. The country's Nominal GDP reached 494.7 USD bn in Mar 2023.
Can the US keep printing money?
The US government can keep creating money (see several other answers for the difference between all money and printed currency) as long as they increase the money supply at close to the same rate that total production increases.
Years of elevated budget deficits, exacerbated by massive federal spending during the COVID-19 pandemic, have taken the debt to historic levels: totaling more than $26 trillion in 2023, U.S. federal government debt is now at its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since World War II.
In 2024, Luxembourg is the world's wealthiest nation by GDP per capita. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to evaluate the economic prosperity of nations and their citizens globally.
| Country | Economy |
|---|---|
| United States | $25.347 trillion |
| China | $19.91 trillion |
| Japan | $5.396 trillion |
| Germany | $4.55 trillion |
Most notably, the research unit of investment bank Goldman Sachs caused a stir in 2003 by setting 2041 as the year in which China and the US would switch places at the economic table.
